Evan Katz

Back in mid-July, I wrote a post about how Georgia isn’t quite yet a battleground state and how I was unconvinced that Democrats would win any of the state’s key races. Well, clearly I was wrong, and I couldn’t be happier about it.

At the time I’m publishing this, Joe Biden is within 10,000 votes of carrying Georgia’s 16 electoral votes. Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux will likely flip Georgia 7th congressional district, a suburban and increasingly diverse district previously held by retiring Republican Rob Woodall. And both Senate contests are headed for January runoff elections that will play a decisive role in the chamber’s balance of power.

Even if Biden doesn’t pull off the upset, Georgia won’t have to wait 10 to 15 years to be competitive like I predicted. It’s already competitive now, and it’ll likely remain a true battleground for the foreseeable future. Of course, for all the reasons I previously outlined, Georgia still leans redder than the country as a whole. But no longer is the “red wall” insurmountable, and Democrats are ahead of schedule.

That’s in large part because of Stacey Abrams, who deserves the utmost praise for building a massive get-out-the-vote infrastructure. She may wind up being the Democrats’ MVP; in a cycle in which the party underperformed overall, she got hundreds of thousands of new voters registered and encouraged them to turn out and vote. I expect Abrams to either challenge Brian Kemp to a rematch for the governorship in two years or run against Kelly Loeffler if Loeffler wins her Senate runoff. But Democrats should seriously look into making her the chairwoman of the DNC. She knows how to reach voters and could build a national apparatus that rivals what Republicans have done for decades.

I’ve been prognosticating a political realignment for years now, even before Donald Trump was elected. It’s clear that realignment is actively taking place at the presidential level, with Ohio and Iowa looking increasingly Republican-friendly—going the way of former bellwether Missouri—and Arizona and Georgia looking friendlier to Democrats—following former red states Virginia and Colorado. As a result, 2024 may look something like this:

A possible 2024 map, using the 2012–2020 Electoral College map. Congressional seats will be reapportioned based on the results of the 2020 Census, so numbers will change. For example, Texas is expected to pick up three seats (39 overall, 41 electoral votes), while New York is expected to lose at least one (26 overall, 28 electoral votes).