Sam Seitz

I am going to keep this short because I’ve already wasted enough time watching that disaster of a debate and midterms are coming up. Stop reading the polls conducted immediately after the debate. They are complete trash. They are conducted by websites that don’t control who votes. That means that anyone can vote as many times as they want. In fact, they can create bots to automatically vote for them over and over and over while they sit back and relax. Moreover, these polls have a major problem with selection bias, as anyone who has taken an intro stats course knows. Sadly, most Trump supporters don’t understand stats (or anything at all for that matter). These insta-polls are usually hosted by sites like Breitbart or other fringe-Republican media outlets. That means the people voting are overwhelming Trump supporters. In other words, these polls aren’t an accurate reflection of the larger electorate, so they are completely irrelevant. Don’t believe me? Well then, let’s look at the first debate. Trump won that debate overwhelmingly according to the garbage insta-polls. But wait, he then proceeded to tank over the following week? How can this be?! Well, it’s because he didn’t actually win the debate. His supporters just deluded themselves into believing unrepresentative polls. I’m not really sure how the second debate will affect the race – I doubt it will have much of an impact at all – but I know that whatever you are reading right now in the insta-polls is completely wrong.